UFAZ Hosted a Research Seminar on Modeling Rainfall-Induced Landslides

On November 27, the French-Azerbaijani University (UFAZ) hosted a research seminar titled “From Physics to Forecast: Modeling Rainfall-Induced Landslides,” presented by UFAZ alumnus and University of Strasbourg PhD in Geophysics, Dr. Rashad Abbasov. The event brought together students, researchers, and academic staff interested in geophysics, geological engineering, and natural hazard assessment.

Dr. Abbasov presented his recent research dedicated to improving the numerical modeling of hydro-mechanical processes that govern rainfall-triggered landslides – an increasingly important topic amid global climate change and the rising frequency of extreme precipitation events. His talk demonstrated how advanced computational modeling can enhance forecasting accuracy and support more effective mitigation strategies in areas vulnerable to slope instabilities.

The presentation outlined the research, structured in three main stages:

1. Developing an efficient uncertainty analysis framework:
   Given the complexity and strong data sensitivity of hydro-mechanical (HM) models, the first stage focused on creating a computationally efficient and reliable methodology for evaluating uncertainties within HM simulations. This framework enables more robust interpretation of model outcomes, especially in environments where field data may be limited or highly variable.
2. Building a fully coupled hydro-mechanical model:
   Traditional models of slope stability often rely on strong simplifications, leading to uncertainties regarding their predictive accuracy. In the second stage, Dr. Abbasov and his collaborators developed a fully coupled HM model by integrating the Richards equation for unsaturated fluid flow with Biot poroelasticity to capture mechanical deformation. The model was implemented in COMSOL® Multiphysics software and validated using benchmark cases as well as real-world slope data.
3. Assessing the role of surface tension in stress predictions:
   The final stage analyzed the effect of the commonly neglected surface tension term on effective stress calculations in slope stability models. The results demonstrated how omission of this term can lead to inaccuracies in predicting landslide initiation, particularly in unsaturated soil conditions.

The seminar concluded with a question-and-answer session, during which attendees discussed applications of the research for hazard assessment, early warning systems, and geotechnical engineering design.